2nd April 2006

Health, Education, Energy and the Environment at the top of the list

In a major poll released today, the McNair Gallup Poll shows that the key priorities for Australia are Health, Education, and a range of environmental issues including finding alternative sources of fresh water and energy as well as family issues. However the same poll found that the Federal Government rates poorly on many of these issues.

Priorities for Australia

With some exceptions, the popular perceptions of what is the general order of priorities for Australia tended to be similar in most states. Public Health rated as the most important issue in all areas, closely followed by education (except in Tasmania). In third place were a set of related issues, depending on the particular situation in each state. In most parts of Australia, the issue of finding new fresh water sources came as the third most important issue, and amongst the top five issues were also 'the environment generally' and 'finding alternative energy sources'. Family issues tended to rate amongst the top issues, while the matter of fighting crime sat in the middle of the order of priorities.

Tasmania was the most notable exception, where fresh water supply and hydroelectric energy are more readily available than on the mainland.

* Results to be used with caution due to small sample size.

The McNair Gallup Poll asked respondents from across Australia to rate each of the issues on a scale of 1 - 10, where 1 was 'not important' to them, and 10 was 'extremely important'. On average, all the issues rated higher than a six, meaning that they were all regarded as important to some degree. Amongst the less important issues were Immigration and International issues.

The McNair Gallup Poll found that in regional Australia, Family Issues and Education rated 8.7, second only to public health.

Public health rated a 9.0 on the importance scale of 1 to 10 in both NSW and Queensland, where funding and quality control issues have reached crisis point on several occasions, particularly in regional areas. According to today's McNair Gallup Poll, after health and education, alternative energy and water sources are amongst the most important issues facing us today.

The McNair Gallup Poll also asked respondents to rate how well the Federal Government was performing on this same list of issues. The survey again used a scale of 1-10, where 1 was performing very poorly, and 10 was performing extremely well. The national Government only rated above the mid-point of the scale (5.5) on five of the fifteen issues. And while some individuals rated the Federal Government highly on some issues, the highest average score was a mediocre 6.3 out of 10, for national security.

* Results to be used with caution due to small sample size.

The McNair Gallup Poll clearly shows that many of the issues that the Federal Government is performing best on are not deemed to be the most important, while for many of the key issues the Government is rated to be performing towards the poor end of the scale.

According to McNair Gallup Poll researcher, Matt Balogh, some of the lower importance scores may be the result of the fact that the Government is performing well in those areas. 'Since September 11, Australia has not experienced a major terror attack on our own soil, which is no doubt a credit to the Government, and perhaps Australians take for granted the efforts of the Government in this area' says Mr Balogh. 'The same goes for the economy and interest rates. The Australian economy has performed exceptionally well, and we have probably forgotten the financial pain of very high interest rates or the strain of an economy in recession'.

'At the other end of the scale, it would appear that the Federal Government is too pre-occupied with international issues and our role in the region, and has failed to recognise that as a nation we are more locally focused on our children's future with health, education and the environment the top priorities' he says.

The results of the McNair Gallup Poll also show that the perceived gap between importance and performance on public health is greater in regional and rural areas. In the metropolitan state capital cities, the need to find a renewable energy source highlights the biggest gap between a need and the government's achievements. In fact, four of the top six gap issues were related to the environment.

The poll found two issues where the gap between importance and performance differed significantly between Australians living in the state capital cities and those in regional and rural areas. One was with respect to fighting crime, an issue that people in regional Australia were more likely to feel was not getting the attention it deserved, compared to city dwellers. The other related to immigration and the plight of refugees. This was more likely to be perceived as a gap between priority and performance by the Federal Government amongst city folk, compared to people in regional and rural areas.

Analysing the results by voting tendencies, Matt Balogh comments 'It is no surprise that the Coalition supporters regard the Federal Government's performance more favourably than Labor voters. However the order of performance is very similar for both sides of the political fence. Even amongst Coalition supporters, the top score was 7.1, and on issues such as renewable sources of water and energy, as well as global warming, we can see the Coalition's own supporters rating the government with a mediocre 5 or less'.

'Another interesting finding was that women tended to rate the issues higher on the importance scale than men. However they also rated the Federal government's performance slightly more favourably, so, on balance, the gap was bigger amongst men than amongst women' notes Matt Balogh.

Comparing the results amongst different age groups, today's McNair Gallup Poll found that people aged 60+ rated the Federal Government's performance best on the fifteen issues discussed in the survey, while those aged 30-39 gave the Government the lowest scores. However the biggest gaps in importance ratings and performance were perceived by those aged 40 - 59 years of age.

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28th March 2006

Multiculturalism works

The latest McNair Gallup Poll shows that 81% of Australians are in favour of Multiculturalism, while less than one-in-five people don't think it works. Across the five state capital cities, nearly half the population (48%) say that multiculturalism 'works well and should be encouraged', while those in regional and rural areas are more apprehensive, with only a third (34%) of the population agreeing that it works well and should be encouraged, but even in the bush the majority still believe it works to some degree.

Victorians, followed by people in NSW are the most confident of the workability of multiculturalism, while those in Queensland and Western Australia are slightly more likely to say that multiculturalism doesn't work.

* Results to be used with caution due to small sample size.

Multiculturalism is the public policy of embracing cultural diversity within Australia. The notion began in Switzerland in the 1950s, and was later adopted by Canada, before spreading to Australia. Both Labor and Liberals incorporate it in their platforms, with the current government's key statement being set out in Multicultural Australia: United in Diversity, released in May 2003.

According to researcher, Matt Balogh, those advocating that Multiculturalism doesn't and can't work are on the outer. 'We have enough experience and history under our belts to be able to declare multiculturalism a success'. According to Mr Balogh 'While there are some aspects of how we manage multiculturalism in Australia that we can improve, this poll shows that the kinds of views expressed by Australia First, and the behaviour that we saw in Cronulla, are not in-line with how the vast majority of Australians feel'. He adds 'As a social researcher, it is fascinating to see how second and third generation Australians have maintained aspects of their heritage'.

The results of the McNair Gallup Poll also show that young people are considerably more likely to believe that multiculturalism works (95%). The poll results clearly show an increasing apprehension amongst the older generations. Women are also more likely to believe that multiculturalism works (82%) compared to men (79%). According to researcher Matt Balogh, 'This poll shows that we can expect to see less opposition to multiculturalism in future years as the young generation who have grown up in multicultural schools and suburbs become the prevailing voice of Australia. It will be interesting to see how well customs can be carried down through the generations. Already we are seeing a loss of the second language amongst second and third generation Australians'.

* Results to be used with caution due to small sample size.

The McNair Gallup Poll also asked respondents whether they felt the level of immigration into Australia should remain as it is, be increased or decreased. The most commonly held view was that the level of immigration should remain unchanged (44%). This question also revealed quite different views across different areas of Australia. For instance, 29% of people in the main capital cities responded that immigration should be increased, which was twice the proportion who wanted to see immigration increased in regional and rural Australia. In fact, four-in-ten people living outside of the big cities said that they felt that immigration should be decreased. Victorians were the most likely to say that immigration should be increased, while, of the mainland states, Queenslanders were the most likely to say that immigration should be decreased.

Commenting on the results amongst men and women, McNair Gallup Poll researcher Matt Balogh observed 'While women were more positive than men about multiculturalism, when we asked them about immigration, they were more likely than men to suggest that immigration levels should be reduced. In fact, only one-in-five women wanted to see immigration levels increased'. He also noted that young people were twice as likely to be in favour of increasing immigration (31%) as older people (15% amongst those aged 60+).

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21st March 2006

Dump the Queen but Keep The Commonwealth

According to a McNair Gallup poll released today, while most Australians believe we should become a Republic, they still see our membership of The Commonwealth as important, quite apart from The Commonwealth Games.

Most participants (55%) in the national poll of 1,000 adults said that Australia should become a Republic. However amongst Australians in regional and rural areas, only 49% felt that Australia should become a Republic, compared to 59% across the state capital cities. According to researcher Matt Balogh, the Republican sentiment could shift over time, with 7% of people in regional and rural areas undecided.

* Results to be used with caution due to small sample size.

The McNair Gallup Poll also found that should Australia become a republic, the vast majority would prefer to see the Head of State elected by the people rather than by the Parliament. People in regional and rural Australia were the most likely to support a popularly elected Head of State.

When asked about the importance of The Commonwealth, the poll found quite different views between city dwellers and country Australians. While a narrow majority of people living in the state capital cities said that The Commonwealth was either 'Not Very Important' or 'Not at all important', in regional areas, nearly two thirds of people said that The Commonwealth was either 'Very important' or 'Important'.

The poll showed that using a scale of Very Important, Important, Not Very Important and Not At All Important, most people had quite moderate views about The Commonwealth, with less than one-in-five (18%) of people saying that The Commonwealth was 'Very important', and only 12% of people who said that The Commonwealth was 'Not at all important'.

The poll showed that views on the Republic are strongly tied to political views, with 68% of Labor voters in favour of Australia becoming a Republic, compared to 38% of Coalition voters. However both sides of the fence agree that if the island continent did become a Republic, the Head of State should be selected by a ballot amongst the people. When asked about the importance of The Commonwealth, Labor voters were fairly evenly divided in their views, with 52% saying that it was important, and 48% rating The Commonwealth as not important. The role of The Commonwealth was more significant for Coalition supporters, with 62% of conservative voters rating The Commonwealth as 'Very Important' or 'Important'.

The survey also shows that rich people are happier. Those surveyed in households with an average income of over $100,000 per annum had an average happiness score of 7.9, far higher than those with incomes below $100,000. Conversely, people living in households with total incomes of below $30,000 per annum were the least happy, with a score of 7.4.

When the survey results were compared along political lines, the survey found that Coalition supporters rated themselves with an average score of 7.8, making them typically happier than Labor supporters, who had an average score of 7.6. Supporters of The Greens were the least happy, with an average score of 7.5.

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21st March 2006

Australian View on Economic Situation of Self, Country and World

A BBC World Service poll asked citizens of 32 nations to share their thoughts on their personal/family economic situation, their country's economic stance and the world's economic condition.

Australia was placed 7th most optimistic about their own and family's economic situation amongst all 32 nations. Well over half of the Australian population (61%) felt hopeful of their own and their family's economic condition, which greatly exceeded the world average of 46%. Just under a quarter (23%) of Australians did not feel as optimistic, which was considerably below the world average of 36%. The nations, which had the majority of their population pessimistic about their own and family's economic situation, were Zimbabwe, Congo, Italy, South Korea, Kenya and France. More Australians (14%) thought their own and family's economic situation would remain the same, compared to only 4% of the world population believed the same.

On related issues, Australians were ranked 6th when it came to thinking that the Australian economy would improve, where 56% of Australians saw Australia's economic stance getting better. This was well above the 38% average of the other 31 participating in the poll. In regard to more than three-quarters of a population believing least that their country's economic stance would deteriorate, Zimbabwe, the Philippines, France, Indonesia, the Congo, Italy and South Korea were ranked the most pessimistic. Just over a third of the Australian population (35%) thought their country's economy would worsen.

With respect to thinking the world economic stance would improve, Australia was positioned 14th amongst all 32 countries involved in the poll. Less than half of the Australian population (42%) believed the world economy would get better, which was slightly above the 38% world average. On the other hand, nearly half of Australians (47%) felt the world economy would worsen. This was above the world average of 37%, which placed Australia 10th most pessimistic about the economic outlook of the world.

This BBC World Service poll of 37,572 people across 32 nations found highly divergent economic perceptions in countries around the world. The poll was completed between October 2005 and January 2006. It was conducted for the BBC World Service by the international polling firm GlobeScan together with the Program on International Policy Attitudes (PIPA) at the University of Maryland.

McNair Ingenuity Research and Market Focus International conducted the Australian component of the poll.

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12th March 2006

Retirement is Bliss

We can look forward to a happy retirement, according to the latest McNair Gallup Poll released today. The survey of over 1,000 people across Australia, using the most rigorous techniques, asked participants to use a scale of 1 to 10 to rate how happy they felt most of the time. The average score was 7.6, meaning that most people rated themselves as fairly happy most of the time.

Overall, only 3% of adult Australians rate themselves at the unhappy end of the scale, below 5, and only 1% gave themselves the lowest score of 1 out of 10, which meant they were 'not very happy most of the time'. Thirteen percent of Australians rated themselves as a 5 or a 6 out of 10, 22% gave themselves a 7, and the most common choice was an 8 out of 10, which was how 40% of respondents rated their level of happiness most of the time. At the top of the scale, 14% of people assessed themselves at 9 out of 10, and 9% gave the top rating of 10 out of 10, which meant they were extremely happy most of the time.

Compared to a similar measure conducted just over two years ago Australians rated slightly happier, at 7.6 in 2006, compared to 7.5 at the end of 2003.

Compared to a similar measure conducted just over two years ago Australians rated slightly happier, at 7.6 in 2006, compared to 7.5 at the end of 2003. One significant change over the past two years has been an improvement in happiness amongst people in regional and rural Australia, from 7.5 in 2003 to 7.7 in 2006, overtaking city dwellers whose happiness index remained unchanged at 7.6 out of 10. On a state-by-state basis, the biggest increases were amongst Victorians and Western Australians. In Western Australia the average happiness score rose from 7.5, which was also the national average at the time, to 7.8 in 2006, two decimal points above the national average. NSW and South Australia An active retirement can be the happiest time in our lives, according to a McNair Gallup Poll released today. rated as the least happy states, representing a big change for South Australia, which previously held number one spot.

* Results to be used with caution due to small sample size.

Men rated nearly 4 points higher than women in the McNair Consumer Confidence Index than women. While men were less willing than women to run-up credit-card debt at this time, four-in-ten men agreed that they felt more confident about buying a few luxury items at the moment, compared to 31% of women.

The survey also shows that rich people are happier. Those surveyed in households with an average income of over $100,000 per annum had an average happiness score of 7.9, far higher than those with incomes below $100,000. Conversely, people living in households with total incomes of below $30,000 per annum were the least happy, with a score of 7.4.

When the survey results were compared along political lines, the survey found that Coalition supporters rated themselves with an average score of 7.8, making them typically happier than Labor supporters, who had an average score of 7.6. Supporters of The Greens were the least happy, with an average score of 7.5.

The McNair Gallup Poll Happiness Index found that retired people and those working full-time were the happiest, while people of a working age who were not employed were the least happy, with an average happiness index of 7.5.

According to researcher Matt Balogh, additional analysis by The McNair Gallup Poll has shown that people with an active and social lifestyle tend to be happier than people who are more reclusive.

'Another big driver of happiness is being optimistic', said Matt Balogh. 'While pessimists might think that they are cushioning themselves against disappointments in life, the optimists with a sunny disposition still manage to ride the ups and downs in life with an overall greater sense of happiness'.

So as the song says, 'Don't worry, be happy'. The research shows that it works!

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5th March 2006

Consumer Confidence Up

The McNair Gallup Poll has found that after a dip at the end of 2005, Australian Consumer Confidence is high. The results show that consumer confidence is slightly higher in the state capital cities as compared with regional and rural Australia.

The McNair Consumer Confidence Index was highest in Western Australia (61.6) and lowest in Queensland (53.6).

Western Australians were the most likely to feel confident about 'buying a few luxury items' and the least likely to feel that they needed to be tightening their belt financially at the moment. While people living in South Australia were the most likely to say that they felt confident about their financial future, in practice they were one of the least likely to feel that they could spend up on luxury items and the most conservative with the use of their credit cards, thereby reducing their Consumer Confidence Index score.

* Results to be used with caution due to small sample size.

Men rated nearly 4 points higher than women in the McNair Consumer Confidence Index than women. While men were less willing than women to run-up credit-card debt at this time, four-in-ten men agreed that they felt more confident about buying a few luxury items at the moment, compared to 31% of women.

The McNair Consumer Confidence Index poll found that high income earners tended to be more confident of their financial future, including feeling more buoyant that they can spend on more luxury items than they could a few months ago.

Nevertheless the top income group (those with gross household incomes over $100,000 or more) were less likely to be spending-up big on their credit cards than those on middle incomes. Those on the lowest household incomes were no less optimistic about the economy as a whole than those in the $30,000 - $60,000 household income bracket. However hardly more than half of the lowest income group (55%) felt confident about their own financial future. Nevertheless the poll found that the lowest income group was also the least likely to run up a credit card debt. Approximately a quarter (27%) of those with a gross household income of less than $30,000 felt that they could spend more on luxury items now than they could a few months prior to the poll, compared to 43% of the top income group.

About this measure of consumer confidence

The McNair Consumer Confidence Index measures consumer sentiment regarding the economy and people's personal situation in a number of ways and on several levels. One is personal behaviour, such as whether people are spending more on their credit cards or on rewarding themselves. This is an important aspect of the measurement because collectively, how consumers feel and behave on a personal level is one of the major influences on the national economy. For instance, even if consumers express concern about the national economy, they may feel confident about their personal finances.

Conversely, while consumers may feel optimistic about the national economy, they may be nervous about their own situation and be tightening their belts. It is therefore important to measure consumer confidence at both levels in order to fully understand how the population is feeling.

Another aspect of consumer confidence measurement is the willingness to take risks. For instance, when credit card debt runs higher than normal, this may be a sign of tough financial times because card holders are unable to limit their spending to their available disposable income. However it can also be a sign of consumer optimism, because consumers may be choosing to buy goods and services in expectation that better financial times are coming, and that they will be able to pay off their credit cards.

When this increase in demand for spending money becomes dangerously high, the Reserve Bank Board tries to slow the economy by increasing interest rates. Hence, increasing interest rates are usually a sign of high consumer confidence and the Reserve Bank trying to slow the demand for money by making it more expensive to borrow. Of course the Reserve Bank want to do this very gently, because it is usually the case that they want to increase interest rates when debt is running high, and this can exacerbate the financial stress on the economy. We often hear the term 'putting the brakes on the economy', which is an excellent comparison, because by gently applying interest rate increases, the economy can be slowed safely. However applying interest rate increases too harshly can force many people and businesses into unaffordable debt, and spending to stop too suddenly, and much like jamming on the brakes of a car and sending it into a skid, this can cause a recession.

The McNair Consumer Confidence Index therefore asks a number of questions to gauge people's perspectives of the economy at both the personal and national level, and to discern whether debt may be increasing because of necessity or because of confidence. The answers to the McNair Consumer Confidence Index questions are numerically scored into a summary index of consumer confidence on a scale of 1 - 100, with 1 being the bottom of the scale in consumer confidence, and 100 being the top.

McNair Ingenuity Research have been using the McNair Consumer Confidence Index since 2002. The graph below shows exactly this symptom for the economy. After the 9-11 attack and the ensuing invasions on Afghanistan and Iraq, most global economies slowed and have been edging back over the last few years (although the US economy has been one exception to this). In Australia high levels of employment and business confidence have meant a generally strong economy, mostly reflected good consumer confidence. The graph below shows a decline in the scores in the McNair Consumer Confidence Index in late 2005, which have bounced back in the latest poll results.

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Liberals Need Howard for Next Election

The latest McNair Gallup Poll has found that if Prime Minister John Howard hands over the reins to Treasurer Peter Costello, it could lose the Liberals the next election.

The poll shows that nearly one-in-five Labor voters would prefer Mr Howard as Prime Minister over Mr Beazley, indicating that leadership is still an issue for Labor. By comparison, nearly all Coalition voters would prefer Mr Howard as PM, clearly reinforcing his strong leadership position amongst the party faithful. However in a runoff between Mr Costello and Mr Beazley, one-in-five Coalition voters would prefer to have Mr Beazley as Prime Minister, while Labor support behind Mr Beazley would be reinforced. In fact, only 14% of Coalition voters would prefer to see Mr Costello as Prime Minister over Mr Howard.

The McNair Gallup Poll also shows that Mr Howard has stronger appeal amongst those living in regional and rural Australia, while Mr Costello (when compared with Mr Howard) rates best in urban areas and his home state of Victoria.

* Results to be used with caution due to small sample size.

The McNair Gallup Poll also addressed the thorny issue of Mr Howard's retirement. When asked about this issue, only a quarter (25%) of Coalition voters thought that Mr Howard should retire before the next Federal election, compared to 65% who felt he should retire after the next election. Coalition voters are concerned that if Mr Howard retires before the next election, this could be costly at the ballot box. This finding compares starkly with the views of Labor voters, amongst whom 61% think that John Howard should retire before the next election.

According to pollster Matt Balogh, views on the Howard retirement plan tend to stem from whether the voters are Howard or Costello supporters. Nevertheless 29% of Howard supporters still think that Mr Howard should retire before the next election - perhaps because they just feel that Peter Costello's time has come.

19th February 2006

Labor Would Win with Green Support

If a Federal election were held this week, the results would be very close, with Labor winning by a nose based on preferences from Greens and Democrats, according to the latest McNair Gallup Poll.

Based on first preferences, the ALP (41%) would be just behind on the total coalition results of 43% of the national vote. However after preferences have been distributed from the Democrats, Greens and other minor parties, the ALP would edge ahead by the narrowest of margins, at 51% versus 49% for the coalition, on a two party preferred basis. This is a big improvement for Labor compared to the last Federal election, when they achieved only 47% of the two party preferred vote nationally - which happened to be one of Labor's poorest results in recent times.

Examining the McNair Gallup Poll results by area shows that the ALP continues to be ahead in the state capital cities, with the Coalition most like to win most regional and country seats. The ALP scored best in Victoria and WA. However the poll results indicate that in NSW the ALP would be behind by 48% to 52% on a two party preferred basis.

* Results to be used with caution due to small sample size.

According to pollster Matt Balogh, if a snap Federal election were held now, it would be a cliff hanger until preferences had been fully allocated, and we may well be hanging on for the postal votes to come in before we would know which party would be invited to form a government.

'The green vote has now become the third significant power in Australian politics. While The Greens will struggle to get any seats in the House of Representatives, their second preferences could hold the balance of power. The same goes for the Democrats, although their significance has diminished since their heyday some years ago' says Matt Balogh.

Today's McNair Gallup Poll results show that young people, particularly those aged 18-29 and aged 30-39, would make up a substantial proportion of Labor's support, while the Coalition would win the majority of votes amongst those aged 40 and over. According to Matt Balogh 'While it is not surprising that the Greens are particularly strong amongst those aged 18-39, we can also see their influence amongst the baby boomers in their 50s who grew up during the flower-power 60s'.

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12th February 2006

Regional Interests Should Come First for Nationals

Nearly two thirds of Australian adults believe that 'The National Party should focus on representing the special needs of rural and regional Australia, ahead of trying to be part of the coalition' according to McNair Gallup Poll results released today.

Overall, 64% of Australians feel that The National Party should focus on representing regional and rural interests, while 20% of people responded that the Nationals should hold ranks with the Liberal Party and keep the coalition more cohesive. Residents of regional and rural areas were more inclined to say that The Nationals' focus should be on representing regional concerns (67%) compared to city dwellers (62%). On a state-by-state comparison, Queenslanders stood out as the most likely to argue that holding the coalition together was most important (24%) - significantly more than in Victoria and South Australia.

* Results to be used with caution due to small sample size.

The vast majority of those surveyed, 83%, felt that the Nationals have a significant and relevant role to play in modern Australian politics, with only 13% saying that 'The National Party is not really relevant in Australia today'.

People living in the state capital cities were more likely to be disillusioned with the relevance of The Nationals (15%), compared with the 36% of people who live in regional and rural Australia, amongst whom less than one-in-ten (9%) said that The National Party was no longer relevant.

Those in the Eastern states were the most likely to see The National Party as relevant, with only 10% of Victorian voters dismissing the relevance of The National Party. Most Australians believe the interests of regional and rural Australia should come ahead of Coalition unity According to pollster, Matt Balogh, more than a third of National voters (37%) said that it was more important for The National Party to stick with the coalition, compared to 31% of Liberal voters. 'It's interesting to see that most Liberal voters are looking at the Nationals in expectation that they will stand up for regional and rural interests, such as telecommunications, drought assistance, transport and so on, while National party voters appear to be quite nervous about further conflict with the Liberals' says Mr Balogh. It was amongst Labor supporters that the poll found the most support for The Nationals asserting their own will on national issues and being prepared to cross the floor. Labor voters were most likely to suggest that The National Party really needs to focus on regional and rural priorities and only 13% of Labor voters thought that coalition unity should be a priority for the Nationals.

'The danger for Labor is that the more wins the Nationals gain in Canberra for regional Australia, the tougher it becomes for Labor to win regional seats. Yet at the same time, Labor are going to be pleased to see any cracks in the coalition' said Matt Balogh.

Today's McNair Gallup Poll results show that young people, particularly those aged 18-29 and aged 30-39, were the most likely to take the view that the National Party should fight for the regional battles, even if that means breaking ranks with the Liberals on certain issues. Conversely, voters in their 40s were the most inclined to suggest that the Nationals hold tight with the coalition. Mr Balogh commented 'Interestingly, 17% people aged 50 to 59 and over were doubting the relevance of the Nationals today, significantly higher than amongst voters aged 30-49 (11%)'.

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Wheat Export Market Must Become Competitive

Most Australian adults believe that The AWB should no longer be the sole exporter of wheat, according to the results of a poll released today.

This week's McNair Gallup Poll has found that most Australians believe that the Single Desk system for wheat exports needs to change. The survey found that this view was held uniformly by those living in the state capital cities (53%) and people in regional and rural Australia (52%).

Across Australia, one third of the 1,000 voters who were surveyed for this poll felt that the AWB should continue to be the sole exporter of Wheat for Australia, although a significant 15% were unsure of what was best for the wheat industry.

Queenslanders were the least likely (28%) to believe that AWB should continue to be the sole exporter of wheat, while those in South Australia were most likely (48%) to believe that the current Single Desk system should continue.

As a proportion of each state's economy, Queensland is the state with the least dependence on wheat, while South Australia produces the most wheat in Australia, as a proportion of total state exports.

* Results to be used with caution due to small sample size.

The Role of AWB

AWB Ltd became a public company in 1999, but is controlled by it principal shareholders, who are Australian grain growers. Born from the Australian Wheat Board, which has existed since 1915, AWB's role is to manage and market all Australian wheat exports through a system known as Single Desk. The strategy of Single Desk is to strengthen the earnings from wheat exports while reducing costs associated with exporting, such as representation, insurance and financial services. AWB handles wheat exports to more than 50 countries, with a market of up to $5 billion per year.

According to pollster Mr Matt Balogh 'When we look at the poll results in terms of voting behaviour we can see that Labor supporters are the most likely to be in favour of ending AWBs monopoly on wheat exports. In fact 56% of Labor voters believe that the Single Desk system should be changed. Half of National voters also agree with the suggestion to end the Single Desk system. In fact, only amongst Liberals voters is there not majority support for disbanding AWBs control over wheat exports. This is clearly a significant sign of the changing times, since historically and philosophically, one would expect the Liberals to be more supportive of competitive markets, compared to the other major parties'.

The McNair Gallup Poll Results also indicate that men have taken a stronger view point on this scandal than women. Nearly one-in-five women (18%) said that they were unsure on whether the AWB should continue to be the sole exporter of Australian wheat, compared to 12% of men. Generally people aged 30-39 tended to be more supportive of a competitive wheat market, compared to baby boomers.

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Forthcoming McNair Gallup Polls

There are currently no McNair Gallup Polls scheduled. We will update this site as soon as a poll is scheduled, so please check back regularly for future polls.

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About the McNair Gallup Poll

This McNair Gallup Poll was conducted by McNair Ingenuity Research between the 6th February and 2nd April 2006 amongst over 1,000 voters throughout Australia. The survey was conducted by means of Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing. The interviewing was conducted by trained and accredited interviewers using a randomly selected sample of voters throughout all states and territories of Australia. The poll uses an extensive 'call back' procedure to improve the representation of people who are hard to reach by telephone.

McNair was the first name in research in Australia, when Bill McNair started the McNair Survey in the 1930s. His son, Ian McNair was CEO of McNair Anderson, later to become AGB McNair and ACNielsen. Ian has a Bachelor of Economics degree from the University of Sydney with Honours in Statistics, and a Master of Science degree from Columbia University in New York majoring in marketing. He is a Fellow of the Australian Market and Social Research Society, the Australian Institute of Management and the Australian Marketing Institute, a past Chairman and Secretary of the Australian Market and Social Research Society and Councillor of the Australian Marketing Institute, a member of the Australian Institute of Political Science, the Institute of Public Affairs, the World Association of Public Opinion Research and the European Society of Marketing and Opinion Research (ESOMAR). Ian is also a Certified Practising Market Researcher.

Throughout his working career, Ian has personally directed hundreds of polls, including the Gallup Poll at McNair Anderson for News Ltd publications. The record of accuracy of these and current polls is outstanding.

Matt Balogh is Managing Director of McNair Ingenuity Research. Matt was previously General Manager of Quadrant Research (The Gallup Organization), which he joined in 1998. Matt was Group Marketing Services Manager at News Limited from 1989 to 1997 where he headed a nation-wide network of research and marketing offices. Matt has a B.A. Hons, M.A. Hons (in Political Opinion Polling) and a Graduate Diploma in Strategic Marketing.

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